Dead-End Technology

Growing up the world seemed full of endless possibilities. I remember reading a story about how one day we would travel on supersonic aircraft regularly. I also saw promises of personal jet packs and flying cars. Those ideas seemed wonderful to a young kid and the future looked bright. Unfortunately none of that has really materialized. Why not? There are physical limitations that create what I call dead-end technology.

While we did have supersonic passenger flights for several decades, the fuel costs made it prohibitively expensive for all but the super wealthy. Friction and gravity require a lot of energy to overcome and there are physical limits to what can be achieved. The same hold true with personal jet packs. When it comes to flying cars, there are numerous safety issues but technology may catch up to where that may be possible, just not soon.

My oldest daughter asked me if I am concerned about the increasing size of hurricanes and I told her there are physical limitations that will keep them from getting much bigger. What will increase is the number of large hurricanes and that is something to worry about. The highest sustained winds ever recorded came from the Pacific hurricane Patricia in 2015 with sustained wind speeds of 215 miles per hour (345 km/h). I doubt we will get above that number by more than one or two miles per hour. We'll just see more hurricanes getting close to that number.

So what about computers? How come they continue to get smaller, faster, and less expensive? The limitations placed on them have not been based on dead-end technology. The switch from vacuum tubes to transistors allowed them to shrink and require a lot less power. Advances in photo lithography have continued to allow them to get smaller. Unfortunately we are getting to a point where it will soon be physically impossible to continue the shrinking trend. Right now, the smallest traces on computer chips are only 3 atoms wide. That is tiny.

So have we reached the limit on computers? Nope. Currently computer chips are built in a very 2-dimensional way where they are mostly, but not completely, flat. Instead of computers being built on chips, we can build them into cubes. Let's see how far that gets us but I think there are plenty of advances that can be made.

About 20 years ago I helped my brother-in-law make some decisions about buying a new computer and told him to get the biggest and highest-resolution monitor he could afford. I told him it would last a long time because monitor technology seemed very stable and his monitor would last through multiple generations of computers. Then flat-screen monitors entered the market and proved me wrong. It took an unforeseen technology advancement to enhance the art of computer and television displays.

So what will it take to have supersonic air travel for the masses? Or those personal jet packs? We will have to throw away the dead-end technology like we did with cathode-ray tubes (CRT) and embrace new technologies like we did with LCD and LED screens. What that is for transportation, I don't know. It may be as simple as devising a low-energy method of defeating gravity or cheaper and denser forms of energy. All I know is I hope someone figures it out cause those personal jet packs look like a lot of fun.