Technology Can't Compete with Mother Nature

Mankind has achieved some really amazing things. Just thinking about all the technological advancements that allow me to post to this blog illustrates some of those achievements. Looking at advances in transportation, housing, food production, and many other areas leads one to believe that we can do a lot.

Tuesday we had a nice snowstorm here in Utah and so I decided to drive up to Alta Ski Area on Wednesday morning before work and see if I could make a few turns before the lifts start running in earnest. In addition to snow, Tuesday's storm ushered in colder temperatures and Alta has started making snow. Making snow is a fairly simple process where you spray tiny water droplets in front of a large-powerful fan that keeps the water in the air long enough to freeze before it hits the ground. The key to making snow is having cold enough temperatures.

I put on all my equipment and started hiking up a run called Corkscrew. It is the same run I hike at the beginning of every season and Alta is kind enough to allow people like me the chance to do so. They also have their snow makers cranking out snow so skiers don't have to worry about rocks in the middle of the run. The only problem is that you don't want to spend too much time in front of the snow makers as it can be cold and wet. During the course of my hike, I passed no fewer than 5 snow makers blowing snow 50 to 100 feet in the air.

Man-made snow has a much different consistency than natural snow. It is great for a base layer on runs that are skied frequently as it is more ice than Mother Nature's soft-fluffy flakes. The ice is more durable and does not get scraped off the mountain nearly as easily. The downside is that it is ice and not very fun to ski. I would much rather have natural snow fall from the sky and get compressed by hoards of skiers. Still the technology does allow us early skiing when Mother Nature doesn't cooperate.

As I hiked up the trail, I saw the remnants of Tuesday's storm and marveled at the uniform consistency. The snow blanketed the entire mountain without the need of strategically-placed machines. Even though Alta's snow makers cranked out a lot of fresh snow, it paled in comparison to what Mother Nature provided. Yes mankind can do some amazing things but we still have a long ways to go to catch up to naturally occurring phenomenon.

Continuing Education and Bad Math

This last Saturday my wife and I attended the 12th Annual Utah Snow and Avalanche Workshop put on by the Utah Avalanche Center. It is the first time I have ever attended and felt it worth my time. It is always good to be reminded of the dangers of winter travel in the backcountry. The moment you become too complacent is when it becomes dangerous.

The first speaker hailed from the National Weather Service and he talked about climate change and what it will do to our winters. For those of us that like to ski, he gave a very depressing talk in that he made the statement that in the next 50 years or so, winter in Utah will cease to exist. Now anyone that knows about long-range forecasts knows that they are always wrong and so it surprised me that there was such a dire prediction stated almost as fact. Anyone that knows anything about weather and statistics knows that you can't apply linear equations to non-linear problems. The long-range weather forecast came from linear regression but we all know that weather forecasting is a non-linear problem. The best you can do is predict weather for the next 7 to 10 days. While I don't dispute that our winters have changed over the past several years, I don't think that we can predict what will happen with the weather in the next 50 years. So in other words, I give the first speaker a failing grade for his math skills.

The next talk extolled the benefits of avalanche safety training but then told everyone in the audience that they are not using that training effectively. He then backed it up with statistics. This time, proper statistics. Interestingly I had to agree with him as did a few of the next speakers.

We next heard about the 4 fatal avalanches we had in Utah last year. We learned things like cause and warning signs to help us avoid similar problems. Then they brought up a panel of backcountry skiers that had been caught in avalanches on the same weekend last year but did not die. That took a lot of courage to go up in front of a bunch of people and talk about mistakes you made. One of the first speakers was the avalanche forecaster who provided an all-is-safe prediction. He felt bad and quite a few people had a false sense of security as we all now know. Then the skiers mentioned a number of red flags that should have had them turning around and not venturing out that day. The biggest was when a lone skier passed a group heading up. The lone skier had been swept downhill 1000 feet in an avalanche and had lost one of his poles. Before Saturday I might have continued up as well. After hearing what happened, I will definitely turn around should something similar happen to me in the future.

My wife and I attended the Workshop to improve our backcountry skills and we both found it to be well worth our time. The workshop cost only $45 and included lunch so we found it to be a good value as well. Furthermore I am an avid user of the Utah Avalanche Center's daily forecast during ski season and felt this helped pay them back for a free service they provide. I'll be back again next year.

Winter Driving Revisited

My daughter just got home after spending the day teaching skiing at Alta. It is 9:30pm and the drive took her over 5 hours. Normally it takes 20 minutes. Why so long? People don't know how to drive in the snow. My wife and I spent the morning skiing and had the same drive. It took us an hour and we came down at 1:00pm. During our drive, we saw a number of idiots trying to drive in the snow with 2-wheeled-drive vehicles and summer tires.

One of my most popular blog posts is from 2013 on Winter Driving. Unfortunately the video I reference is no longer available but there are some secrets of driving in the snow:

1. Make sure you have winter tires
2. Go slow

If you don't have item #1, then don't drive in the snow. Pull off to the side of the road and wait for the snow to melt. If that sounds harsh, sorry but that is reality.

While waiting for my daughter to make it safely down the canyon, I utilized several online tools. My favorite is maps.google.com. You can have it show traffic and see where the slowdowns are located. My kids all prefer Waze. This evening Waze had the better information. While I could see where traffic is slow, that doesn't help get home any quicker when there is only one way down the canyon. Interestingly, my daughter could have skied home quicker than it took to drive. Too bad they won't let you leave a car at the ski resorts overnight. After all, I will be back up there tomorrow and could have helped bring it home.

A Tough Thanksgiving

This has been a very tough Thanksgiving this year. It started with . . . never mind. This is the time of the year that I should really be focusing on what I am thankful for instead of worrying about what went wrong. So here is a small representation of things I am thankful for right now:

1. I'm thankful that the mountains got 14 inches of news snow the day before Thanksgiving. I love to ski but I also know that we have had a couple of really bad winters and the Great Salt Lake is getting smaller. I hope we will have a few months of unnaturally wet weather that continues to fill the lake so I can sail my boat more in the summer. Extra powder in the mountains is always nice.
2. I'm thankful that I got to spend the week with my family that loves to have as much fun as I do.
3. I'm thankful that even though the ski resorts in Utah are not yet open (Snowbird opens tomorrow) I still got to ski every day. Sure I had to hike up the hill, but I have the correct equipment that makes it more fun than a chore.
4. I'm thankful for a fun job in technology that pays me to do what most others consider play. About the only job cooler than mine would be an astronaut and those are very difficult to get.
5. Finally, I'm thankful that even though I had a busy week, I got everything done that needed to be completed and can look forward to a wonderful Christmas season.

Hopefully you have lot's to be thankful for and are looking forward to one of the most pleasant times of the year. Now pray for more snow.