Continuing Education and Bad Math

This last Saturday my wife and I attended the 12th Annual Utah Snow and Avalanche Workshop put on by the Utah Avalanche Center. It is the first time I have ever attended and felt it worth my time. It is always good to be reminded of the dangers of winter travel in the backcountry. The moment you become too complacent is when it becomes dangerous.

The first speaker hailed from the National Weather Service and he talked about climate change and what it will do to our winters. For those of us that like to ski, he gave a very depressing talk in that he made the statement that in the next 50 years or so, winter in Utah will cease to exist. Now anyone that knows about long-range forecasts knows that they are always wrong and so it surprised me that there was such a dire prediction stated almost as fact. Anyone that knows anything about weather and statistics knows that you can't apply linear equations to non-linear problems. The long-range weather forecast came from linear regression but we all know that weather forecasting is a non-linear problem. The best you can do is predict weather for the next 7 to 10 days. While I don't dispute that our winters have changed over the past several years, I don't think that we can predict what will happen with the weather in the next 50 years. So in other words, I give the first speaker a failing grade for his math skills.

The next talk extolled the benefits of avalanche safety training but then told everyone in the audience that they are not using that training effectively. He then backed it up with statistics. This time, proper statistics. Interestingly I had to agree with him as did a few of the next speakers.

We next heard about the 4 fatal avalanches we had in Utah last year. We learned things like cause and warning signs to help us avoid similar problems. Then they brought up a panel of backcountry skiers that had been caught in avalanches on the same weekend last year but did not die. That took a lot of courage to go up in front of a bunch of people and talk about mistakes you made. One of the first speakers was the avalanche forecaster who provided an all-is-safe prediction. He felt bad and quite a few people had a false sense of security as we all now know. Then the skiers mentioned a number of red flags that should have had them turning around and not venturing out that day. The biggest was when a lone skier passed a group heading up. The lone skier had been swept downhill 1000 feet in an avalanche and had lost one of his poles. Before Saturday I might have continued up as well. After hearing what happened, I will definitely turn around should something similar happen to me in the future.

My wife and I attended the Workshop to improve our backcountry skills and we both found it to be well worth our time. The workshop cost only $45 and included lunch so we found it to be a good value as well. Furthermore I am an avid user of the Utah Avalanche Center's daily forecast during ski season and felt this helped pay them back for a free service they provide. I'll be back again next year.