Today I was catching up on the news and trying to discover the latest details on Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 that disappeared this past weekend. It was totally unrelated but I came across an article about 5 Internet predictions that were really off. I would have to say that I didn't agree with many of them at the time they were given. Unfortunately I actually remember a few of them and that makes me feel old. You can click on the link to see the whole story, but here are the predictions in order:
Spam will be gone within two years - Bill Gates, 2004
Websites will never replace newspapers - Newsweek, 1995
The Internet... will explode - Robert Metcalfe, 1995
The Web means the end of Big Brother - Colombia Journalism Review, 1995
No one will buy anything over the Web - Newsweek, 1995
Looking at these predictions now remind me of how difficult it is to make accurate predictions for anything. Even the weather is tough to predict for more than a few hours, let alone days. One of the people that made two of these predictions was Clifford Stoll who wrote "The Cuckoo's Egg" which is one of my favorite books. The book documents how the author was able to track down one of the leading computer hackers at the time. While Cliff was pretty good at tracking down a hacker, he leaves a bit to be desired in the prediction department. I don't think I would do much better though and so I can't fault him. Just remember that even the experts get it wrong every once an a while and so take any predictions with a grain of salt. Especially those about technology.
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