Thursday, November 28, 2019

Things I am Thankful For

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Generally I don't take the time to write in my blog on Thanksgiving but today I find myself with a bit of extra time by myself. My married kids are spending time with their in-laws and so I find myself alone on this peaceful Thursday. I thought I would write about some of the things I am thankful for. Naturally I am thankful for family and friends but I wanted to highlight some of the technologies that make our lives better.

We live in a marvelous time with a lot of modern conveniences such as refrigerators and microwaves. When I first started spending time on my boat in California almost 10 years ago, I didn't have a lot of these modern conveniences. In fact, my fridge didn't really work that well and I often had food spoil over the weekend. I have since fixed that. I also didn't have a microwave. I do now and use it every morning I stay on the boat. That is how I cook my oatmeal. I also use it to heat up water to clean my breakfast dishes. These are wonderful technological devices that make my life a lot easier.

I am thankful for computers. While they may actually complicate our lives, they do make certain things a lot easier. Connect one to the Internet and you have an infinite source of information. Of course, not all of it can be believed but if you know where to look you can find out anything.

I am thankful for smartphones with cameras. I don't know how we survived in the days before mobile phones. Then they added cameras and now I can take pictures of the beautiful mountain scenes I have experienced every day this week as I have ventured out to do some backcountry skiing. I get to brag a little bit as I send the pictures to my friends back in the Bay Area. I also appreciate being able to look up driving directions and answers to important questions such as if my flight is still on time.

Finally I am thankful for jet planes. Without them I would have to leave the mountains that I love and live full-time in the Bay Area for work. I tell people that the Bay Area is a great place if you are into shopping and good restaurants. It is horrible if you like spending time outside in the mountains. Locals there claim they have mountains but those are really just hills with very limited access. If you like rock climbing and skiing, you have to drive somewhere else or catch a plane.

Yes, there is a lot to be thankful for. Hopefully you are reading this after Thanksgiving and had the time to create your own list of things you are thankful for.

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Replacing My Avalanche Beacon

My oldest son loves to research outdoor equipment. This past weekend he came to me and told me it is time to replace my current avalanche beacon (or transceiver as it is sometimes known). The company that made my mine is recommending I replace it with a newer model. The justification is that mine is an older 2-antenna model and the latest 3-antenna models have faster search times, are easier to use, and are more efficient.

That begs the question: What do I do with my old one? After all, I haven't used it that much and know it still works well. We make sure to test our beacons all the time. It helps reassure us that they function as advertised and that we are not learning how to use our equipment when we really need it. You don't want to be fumbling around with a new toy when someone's life is on the line.

With Christmas just around the corner, I am in no hurry to replace my current  transceiver as Santa may have one for me under the Christmas tree. If I don't get one a month from now then I will go out and purchase one and have to do something with the old one. My wife suggested that we use it for practice. That is not a bad idea. Another idea I had is to use it as a loaner for someone coming along with us on an adventure who may not have one. It sounds like a good idea but I am afraid it will promote a false sense of security.

I think the best course of action is to do what I do with all other outdated electronic devices and that is to utilize the services of an e-waste company. Our local Best Buy has a number of bins at the entrance of their store where you can drop off old electronic devices and they will dispose of them in a way that is better for the environment than just putting them in landfill. As with old climbing ropes that should be cut into unusable sections, I may take a hammer to mine so that nobody is tempted to used the antiquated device. If I have tears in my eyes as the hammer comes down, it is probably just allergies . . .


Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Christmas Lights on the Boat

Tonight is my last night on the boat until after Thanksgiving. Then I won't be back in California the following week because of a trip to Japan and so I thought I would put my Christmas lights up. It is something I do every year. Some people may think it a waste as I won't be around to enjoy them. The reality is that I put them up for others and not myself.

In years past I have only turned on the Christmas lights while I am at the boat. Last year I tried to put the lights on a timer but the one I purchased came broken. I didn't have the chance to replace it until after Christmas. I have the new one on the boat this year and I know it works. I plan to keep the lights on the boat until I get back from the Holiday break in January. Every night from 6pm until midnight, the lights should come on.

I got done putting the lights up and sent a picture to my wife. She responded that the boat looks festive. I also sent a picture to a friend here in San Mateo who said the exact same thing. Another word one of them used was "cheerful." That is the spirit I am going for and so I consider the lights a success. As we enter the Holiday season, remember that most of the things we do are for others and not ourselves.

Monday, November 18, 2019

Quantum Computing

A few days ago I had an old friend reach out to me on LinkedIn. He asked if I knew anything about Quantum Computing among other topics and I had to confess that I didn't really know much. Today I came across it again as it relates to machine learning and so I did a bit more research.

There is a different vocabulary associated with Quantum Computing and that takes a bit of getting used to. With traditional computing you have a bit which represents either the number 0 or the number 1. Quantum computing uses qubits which can be either a 0 or a 1 at the same time. Now string a bunch of bits together and you can represent things like numbers or letters. If you have two numbers you want to add together, you can add their bit representations and you have a single number as the result. With qubits, you add two representations of numbers and have all possible sums for all possible inputs with a single operation. So if you have an 8-bit number, you can count from 0 to 255. Assuming you have space for the results, adding all possible 8-bit numbers results in 512 operations. With Quantum Computing you can get all 512 results in a single operation.

Now start thinking about really large numbers. The larger the numbers, the more operations it takes to come up with all possible outcomes. This idea starts to open up a number of very difficult problems that can now be solved.

If you can do addition on a computer, you can also do multiplication. If you can do that multiplication very quickly then you have something that will help with encryption and decryption of confidential information. Some worry that Quantum Computers can be used to hack into secure banking systems. Fortunately there are secure encryption and decryption techniques using Quantum Computing that are unbreakable and so the moment the technology becomes viable, we will just need to change our current security protocols.

Some scientists believe that Quantum Computing is still a ways off. Others see it as being much closer. The real question is what will the applications be. If we go back 50 years and try to come up with possible uses for traditional computers, we couldn't possible imagine how they are being used today. The same will be true for Quantum Computing and that is what makes it interesting.


Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Content is King

The new video streaming service "Disney+" recently launched. This afternoon I looked at Disney's stock price and it rose $10/share. Coincidentally I looked at Netflix stock and it dropped $10/share over the same period. You have to wonder if there is a correlation.

I currently don't have any streaming video subscriptions nor do I plan to sign up for any but I have to admit that if I did, I would start with Disney+. Why? They have the most content I am interested in watching. If you look at my movie collection at home, I have a ton of Disney movies. Not just the animated ones but also most of the Marvel and Star Wars collections.

So what is Netflix going to do? Well I have to recognize that Netflix is fairly nimble and has done a great job at adjusting their business strategy based on market changes. I think they will be able to come up with content through their own efforts or through acquisition. There should be a lot of companies merging content in the near future because it doesn't make sense to subscribe to CBS's streaming service and then pay more money for NBC's or a number of other smaller providers.

Today at the office we had a discussion about who is signing up for Disney+ and if they are ditching another streaming video service. Everyone that is signing up for the new service is cancelling something. My own son sent me a message saying that he was getting rid of Netflix for Disney+.

I will be interested to see how Disney+ changes the video streaming market and hope that is spurs collaboration among the smaller players. That is probably the only way some of them will survive.

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Obsession

Lately I have been dealing with a powerful obsession. My own father has remarked then when I pick up a new hobby, I jump in with both feet and immerse myself in it. This has happened with sailing and more recently rock climbing. It consumes my spare time and pretty much every waking moment until I accomplish some specific task. Then I can relax to focus on other parts of my life. Many years ago, this is how I got through college.

Obsessions can be bad if one focuses on a harmful thing like alcohol or drugs. They can also be good if one is trying to make the world a better place. This is how wonderful technologies have been invented. It took sincere devotion for two guys to work in their garage to create a new device that revolutionized the computer industry and brought personal computing to the masses. We know the company they created as Apple.

Fast forward a few years and a software engineer working at CERN in Switzerland saw a need for people to share information. In order to solve the problem he developed 3 key technologies that are ubiquitous today: hypertext transport protocol (HTTP), web addresses, and hypertext markup language (HTML). Because of his obsession we now have the World Wide Web which greatly simplified the Internet and made it usable for the masses.

There are countless other examples of engineers working tirelessly to solve problems that have changed the world for the better. They are able to focus for long periods of time, not worrying about food or sleep and end up accomplishing the seemingly impossible. So when you see someone obsessing about a technical problem, know that there could be tremendous good that comes from concentrated thought. As for me, my current obsession won't change the world but it also isn't hurting me either. I'm just hoping ski season gets going here pretty soon.

Monday, November 11, 2019

AI: The Next Big Tech Trend

About 30 years ago everyone thought that artificial intelligence (AI) would be the next big thing. Companies invested in expert systems only to discover they didn't have much power and we had a long ways to go before we could do anything really spectacular. Now it seems like you can't click through a website without hearing about AI, machine learning (ML), or deep learning (DL). This leads one to ask if AI really is the next big thing.

This morning I came across 2 articles on AI that I felt merited reading. The first talked about a new form of machine learning where the program or agent is given the freedom to explore new ideas randomly instead of being rewarded for achieving some goal. Should a goal be reached, the agent stores the steps necessary to repeat the process. If a more efficient way of achieving that goal is found, the memory is overwritten with the better steps. The reason this is of interest to me is that is has been used to play several computer games successfully when other AI agents based on reinforcement learning have failed. Interestingly this is how some of our most successful innovations have emerged: thinking about novel ways of solving an existing problem.

The second article I read today came from a consulting organization talking about how AI is going to revolutionize our economy. While they admit that a number of jobs will be replaced by AI, they also point out that a higher number of jobs are being created to implement it than those being lost. The article then went on to estimate the amount of money being spent developing and using AI. It is not a small number.

My takeaway from both articles is that the field of artificial intelligence is getting a lot of interest and is showing the same promise that the personal computer industry had 30 years ago. There are also a lot of new ideas in AI and it will be an area of tremendous innovation. If I had a son or daughter headed off to college and wondering where the money is, I would definitely steer him or her towards AI.

Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Continuing Education and Bad Math

This last Saturday my wife and I attended the 12th Annual Utah Snow and Avalanche Workshop put on by the Utah Avalanche Center. It is the first time I have ever attended and felt it worth my time. It is always good to be reminded of the dangers of winter travel in the backcountry. The moment you become too complacent is when it becomes dangerous.

The first speaker hailed from the National Weather Service and he talked about climate change and what it will do to our winters. For those of us that like to ski, he gave a very depressing talk in that he made the statement that in the next 50 years or so, winter in Utah will cease to exist. Now anyone that knows about long-range forecasts knows that they are always wrong and so it surprised me that there was such a dire prediction stated almost as fact. Anyone that knows anything about weather and statistics knows that you can't apply linear equations to non-linear problems. The long-range weather forecast came from linear regression but we all know that weather forecasting is a non-linear problem. The best you can do is predict weather for the next 7 to 10 days. While I don't dispute that our winters have changed over the past several years, I don't think that we can predict what will happen with the weather in the next 50 years. So in other words, I give the first speaker a failing grade for his math skills.

The next talk extolled the benefits of avalanche safety training but then told everyone in the audience that they are not using that training effectively. He then backed it up with statistics. This time, proper statistics. Interestingly I had to agree with him as did a few of the next speakers.

We next heard about the 4 fatal avalanches we had in Utah last year. We learned things like cause and warning signs to help us avoid similar problems. Then they brought up a panel of backcountry skiers that had been caught in avalanches on the same weekend last year but did not die. That took a lot of courage to go up in front of a bunch of people and talk about mistakes you made. One of the first speakers was the avalanche forecaster who provided an all-is-safe prediction. He felt bad and quite a few people had a false sense of security as we all now know. Then the skiers mentioned a number of red flags that should have had them turning around and not venturing out that day. The biggest was when a lone skier passed a group heading up. The lone skier had been swept downhill 1000 feet in an avalanche and had lost one of his poles. Before Saturday I might have continued up as well. After hearing what happened, I will definitely turn around should something similar happen to me in the future.

My wife and I attended the Workshop to improve our backcountry skills and we both found it to be well worth our time. The workshop cost only $45 and included lunch so we found it to be a good value as well. Furthermore I am an avid user of the Utah Avalanche Center's daily forecast during ski season and felt this helped pay them back for a free service they provide. I'll be back again next year.

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

I Guess I Wasn't Done

A few posts ago I mentioned that I was pretty much done with God of War for the PS4 as it stopped being fun. I had one last trophy to earn and felt like no matter what I did, I was not going to earn it. This weekend I talked to my son who completed the game and finished the last task that I found so difficult. He gave me some pointers and this evening I tried them out. Guess what? They worked and now I have finished another game and earned a platinum trophy.

So what is the trick to beating the last of the Valkyries? For me it all boiled down to weapons choice. I have played all of the main God of War games starting with the version on the PlayStation 2. In going through those games I really liked using the Blades of Chaos. The moment I unlocked them in this game, I started using them with reckless abandon. Don't follow my example. My son used the ax and that made all of the difference. The ax inflicts more damage than the Blades of Chaos. It also takes a bit more skill to use well.

Another thing I did that helped finish the game is paying attention to all of my meters and gauges. Before I would try to land large attacks only to discover I did not wait long enough for the power to refill. This evening I would quickly glance down and constantly check when I could use the larger attacks. Once the power filled, I would unleash the attack.

As I got towards the end of the final battle, I could see my health dwindling down to almost nothing. I noticed I had enough power to unleash 2 simultaneous large attacks and used them. That allowed me to defeat the final boss and I became elated. It has taken me weeks of getting my butt kicked and I finally triumphed. Now it is time to move onto another game. I have Spider-Man loading up right now and will start playing it shortly.

Monday, November 4, 2019

It's A Girl!

Yesterday we had all of my children and grandchildren (all 2 of them) at the house for Sunday dinner. We had a good party and then things wound down. My oldest son and his wife stuck around a bit while I entertained my oldest grandchild. Eventually it came time to put him to bed and so we put him in my wife's sewing room. Once he fell asleep, his parents headed home for one last night of good rest. This morning my son took his wife to the hospital and this evening my 3rd grandchild was born.

At about 3:30 this morning my grandson woke up and realized he was not at his own home. He called for my wife and worried where his mother might be. My wife calmed him down and then we got a few minutes of sleep before I had to get up at 5:15 to catch my plane to the Bay Area. My wife and I thought our grandson was asleep as we got ready to go to the airport. Sure enough, the little man came down the stairs before we could get out the door. He wanted to play. We took him with us to the airport where he helped "Nana" drop "Bampa" to catch a plane.

I knew my latest granddaughter would be born while I am away but I got on the plane anyways. Grandpas are not really needed at this stage of the child's life and I would just get in the way. I will fly back on Thursday and probably get to see the newborn on Friday. In the meantime I am relying on copious group-text messages and pictures to share in the experience. I sincerely appreciate technology and the ability to instantly send photographs for these very important life moments.